Author: Gunnar Lo Jarl, LUMA-GIS, GIS Center, University of Lund, e-mail jarl@jarlspantry.com
Contents
In the shadow of the earthquake disaster in South Asia that is presently evolving into enormous proportions with respect to human suffering, I will discuss some ideas about an Earthquake Management and Alert System, that already at least in part exist for other parts of the world and if implemented wisely can be used as a tool for avoiding what seems to be substantial numbers of unnecessary casualties in similar future events.
In the face of a disaster the natural questions arising in any compassionate human being, whether far or near, are "what is needed?", "what is wanted?" and "what is missing?" For the Swedish victims of the Asian earthquake disaster, their families and other concerned parties, it has become apparent that the one most evidently missing factor is effective management from the Swedish authorities. An effective warning system requires above all a global, international team of competent staff with an extensive network cooperation. It is imperative to any such system that it is in the hands of effective management and strong leadership.
Some facts about the present Asian earthquake disaster
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) http://www.usgs.gov gives the following parameters for the earthquake location and magnitude.
Date
: 26 December 2004
Origin Time : 00:58:53 UTC (=GMT)
Lat/Long : 3.316° North / 95.854° East
Depth : 30 km
Magnitude : 9.0
Locality : 255 km SSE of Banda Aceh, off the west coast of Northern Sumatra
Since the main shock another 174 aftershocks of with a magnitude greater than 4 has occurred until 2005-01-08 (see map in fig.1). The main shock was a great earthquake (≥8,0) and exerted a maximum of 20 m slip to the fault extending through the whole Burma Micro plate (including the Northern Tip of Sumatra, the Andaman Islands and the Nicobar Islands) creating a rupture of 1200 km length. The main shock caused a great tsunami wave movement, originating from the whole rupture length and moving outwards toward the shores of the Indian Ocean at an initial speed of 700-800 km/h (speed of tsunami at 4000 m deep ocean, speed reduced in more shallow waters). The main tsunami reached the shores of Northern Sumatra within 10 - 15 minutes, the shores of Thailand and Myanmar within 1 ½ - 2 hours, the shores of Sri Lanka within 2 - 2 ½ hours and the shores of East India within 3 - 6 hours. The number of deaths caused by the Earthquake including the Tsunami is of today a colossal confirmed 160 000 and still growing. The number of injured is estimated to 500 000 and the number of people in urgent need of aid is at least 1,8 million according to UN estimations. The consequences in human suffering will grow with time, worries for epidemics due to fresh water shortage and the breakdown of sanitation and infrastructure and current flooding from torrential rains adds up to the difficult situation of the massive urgent need for professional care, handling of dead bodies and mitigation of e.g possible malaria epidemic. The UN estimates today 2005-01-13 that the number of poverty stricken people will increase by 2 million in the affected countries.
The amount of information already published and available via the internet is vast and impossible to list comprehensively, so here follows links to a few useful websites: The USGS Earthquake Hazard Program http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqinthenews/2004/usslav has collected and made available comprehensive data about the earthquake and tsunami and provide links to a world of data, organisations and educational resources. The International Center for Geohazards (ICG) http://www.geohazards.no/index.htm have similarly comprehensive data and expertise and links to a very educational website featuring among other useful information an FAQ about the earthquake at the Norwegian Institutt for Geovitenskap http://www.geo.uib.no/seismo/quakes_world/Sumatra-2004/Sumatra-quake.html . The coverage of Swedish governmental or scientific organisations on the web is remarkably thin.
In the general despair of the current situation, already voices have been raised about the lack of effective management and questions have been asked if people could have been better warned. This latter question will be the focus of international commissions in the near future and the UN has already set a target of implementing such a system in the Indian Ocean by 2006. In this paper I'm discussing the different components of a possible Earthquake Management and Alert System, mostly focusing on the use of GIS in such a system.
Geology is one of the areas of science where GIS was first implemented, so real-time data and special applications handling seismologic activities are readily available for anyone curious enough to study this area of science. Geophysical data is available and abundantly so. ICSU (see organisations below) commissioned the International Year of Geophysics in 1957 to 1958, during which the World Data Center (one mirror site at http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/wdc/wdcmain.html ) was established. The data center is the most comprehensive portal of data available for research in the field of Geophysics. Historical Data is available for analysis and modelling of e.g. earthquake hazard and impact. Near real-time data is available for monitoring presently occurring seismic activity. However, the data still needs professional evaluation before it can be used as information.
Oceanographic data is available via the British Oceanographic Data Center (BODC) http://www.bodc.ac.uk/ which hosts metadata and hourly data from the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS), a programme coordinated by IOC. Other geo-related data is available or linked via the Global Observing Systems Information Center (GOSIC) http://www.gos.udel.edu/default.htm .
In any event of a natural or technological disaster The International Charter of Space and Major Disaster http://www.disasterscharter.org/main_e.html backed up by several heavy member agencies such as the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) http://www.noaa.org and European Space Agency (ESA) http://www.esa.int/esaCP/index.html can be activated to deliver Satellite data by authorized requesting member organisation officers (usually national or supranational civil protection officers). In the Indian Ocean disaster, the charter provided damage assessment maps and satellite imagery within a few days of the event (see example in fig 2). One specific set of data available is the landscan raster population database http://www.ornl.gov/sci/gist/landscan/landscan2003/index.html with a 30" by 30" lat/long grid. Via the websites of several organisations a multitude of satellite based maps and imagery is available on-line.
Any seismic event needs signals at a minimum of three different seismographic stations in order to calculate its correct position and magnitude (which is based on location). Especially regarding magnitude, signals from at least two different types of body waves emitted by the earthquake, P-waves (5000 km/s) and S-waves (3000 km/s), are needed for a correct calculation, even data from the much slower surface waves may be needed. Since seismic waves need time to travel through the body and surface of earth, calculation of location and magnitude will take time, but usually no more than 10 - 15 minutes for a good enough calculation of parameters necessary in a warning system.
Naturally, for complicated computations, e.g. tsunami propagation modelling where very large rasters are used as input and output, specialized raster calculation applications is developed and supercomputers is necessary in order to handle the large amounts of data and to provide extreme computational capacity.
A large network of Seismographic stations are connected via LISS (Live Internet Seismic Server) http://www.liss.org , which means that broadband solutions from all connected stations are accessed via one single internet connection from anywhere in the world. LISS is providing software for using the LISS data as information. Via USGS or LISS, tables or delimited text files of recent or historical data can be downloaded, providing coordinates for event data input in GIS.
For monitoring the possible development and propagation of a tsunami, the Pacific Tsunami Warning System (see below) receives automatic signals from automatic tide gauges equipped with GPS and modem. Whenever an earthquake exceeding a defined magnitude is detected, a tsunami alert is called for, and from the known location of the earthquake the closest tide gauges are being monitored for sea level changes. For more detailed monitoring after a tsunami warning has been issued the DART system (see below) provides high resolution data of sea level amplitude, possibly eliminating a false alarm (which was the case in Hawaii in 2003, saving $68 million in possible lost business productivity if evacuation of shore zones had been fulfilled).
Satellite imagery and reclassified rasters are being widely used and distributed by several inter-linked international bodies. Remote Sensing is most useful in disaster impact assessment and emergency rescue and long-term reconstruction planning. NOAA scientists have recently captured the tsunami propagation via sea level amplitude satellite data, a new experience within the remote sensing industry that will be used in research about tsunami modelling and forecasting.
For all data and information conveyance high speed and high capacity communication is necessary. Modems are being used in automated signal transferring from tide gauges. The Pacific Warning System employs a number of various radio communication channels and also the Internet, which is being used largely for conveying both data and information (maps). This can be an issue for poorer countries where access to the Internet and bandwidth may be restricted.
Special software has been developed and is available on-line for analysing raw seismic data. Substantial research has already been done and good quality geographic data produced e.g. as seismic hazard assessment rasters, so basically for a disaster management system no other tools are needed than any of the more comprehensive GIS applications available on the market today.
The use of GIS is widespread and probably absolutely necessary in any science deployed in the areas mentioned above. It is used in geographic visualisation of seismic activity, tectonic patterns and oceanographic presentation. It is used for analysis of risk assessment mapping and in mitigation of hazard planning. GIS is also used for modelling purposes. NOAA has extensive website material covering most areas and is on the frontier of GIS implementation. They work closely with their Pacific region colleagues and a result of their common efforts is the establishment of a Pacific Tsunami Warning System (see below).
Complicated computation on supercomputers is required for Tsunami propagation modelling. More research is however needed to arrive at calculations with less error. As of today the computer capacity available makes it possible to come up with a fairly good model forecasting the propagation of a tsunami within one to two hours of receiving the necessary seismologic data. A great tsunami may have devastating effects along its path several hours up to more than half a day after the initial main event creating the tsunami. But nevertheless tsunami modelling is still in the cradle of research. The specific science of tsunami modelling is coordinated by the Russian based Tsunami Laboratory http://tsun.sscc.ru/tsulab/tsun_hp.htm .
The various GIS applications used in disaster management can be categorised as follows:
Research modelling and analysis applications.
Preparedness e.g. inundation planning maps and hazard maps.
Forecasting probable disaster events (e.g. drought or epidemic) can be anticipated by inputting several contributing factors and areas of increased risk receive greater attention.
Event Monitoring near real-time data is input to GIS for monitoring e.g. seismic activity and tsunami propagation. Near real-time remote sensing data can be input in GIS but takes more time to analyse.
Impact Assessment remote sensing data is interpreted and used for damage assessment.
Disaster Management interpreted rasters, field data and vector data related to social aspects are combined for effective rescue and aid effort targeting.
Reconstruction several sources of data are input in GIS for planning of reconstruction of infrastructure and new development sites.
The main organisation concerned with the scientific aspect of seismology and oceanography is the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) http://www.iugg.org which encompasses seven semi-autonomous associations concerned with their special aspects of the science. IUGG cooperates with other unions within the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) http://www.icsu.org/index.php and in the study of natural catastrophes it co-operates with Unesco http://ioc.unesco.org/itsu .
Several Organisations within GIS and communication technology are actively contributing with their knowledge and resources to disaster recovery campaigns such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami. Directions Magazine http://www.directionsmag.com/default.asp Newsletter has featured several articles on how the GIS community has offered or already take active part in the acute disaster management situation and in reconstruction planning.
The Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) http://www.nerc.ac.uk has in a press breifing compiled summaries of current activities within the scientific community related to the earthquake and disaster. Apart from the technologies and data mentioned above, they have also mentioned the need for remote sensing data and field survey data in order to assess the ecological aspect of the disaster (including mangrove, coral reef, wetlands and groundwater damage).
Two of the NGO:s currently involved in the after-math of the disaster are MapAction http://www.mapaction.org/index.html and Global MapAid http://www.globalmapaid.rdvp.org/index.html providing rescue operations with maps for better emergency resource distribution and also long-term reconstruction efforts. And the major GIS software company ESRI naturally holds data and offers help and even emergency software and hardware for GIS http://www.esri.com/news/pressroom/indian_ocean_disaster.html . A European based organisation RESPOND is a globally active provider of geographic data and information for the humanitarian community. Member organisations of RESPOND are UNOSAT http://unosat.web.cern.ch/unosat and several other value adding GIS providing companies and organisations, coordinated through its prime contractor Infoterra http://www.infoterra-global.com .
A few alert systems are currently in action, the Pacific Tsunami Warning System coordinated by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) http://www.prh.noaa.gov/ptwc being the good example. The process from initial event to effective local action follows these steps:
Detection of any seismic observatory of seismic activity of a magnitude exceeding an alarm threshold.
Interpretation and professional report from personnel at the seismic station.
Information and report passed to a central management facility.
Event reported to other selected stations and additional event data collected back to the central management facility.
If magnitude is greater than a set limit (6.5 M) an information bulletin is issued to the participants of the system but evaluating that no pacific wide tsunami was generated.
If the magnitude is greater than the next limit (7.0 7.5 M), a regional warning/watch bulletin is issued instead. This bulletin alerts all participants of a possible tsunami and provides data that can be relayed to the public for precautionary purposes. The area within the range of a estimated time of arrival (ETA) of tsunami within three hours from the epicentre of the earthquake is placed in tsunami warning status while the area within 3 to 6 hours ETA is placed in watch status.
Further assessment of the event is made with respect to location, depth, type of seismic waves, re-evaluating magnitude and checking for automatic tidal station readings of changes of water level near the epicentre.
If a potentially destructive tsunami is detected the watch/warning is prolonged or extended to issuance of a pacific-wide tsunami warning.
Whenever a tsunami warning/watch is issued, the dissemination agencies will implement the predetermined evacuation plans and take other precautionary actions.
If a tsunami is not detected or only evaluated as minor and not damaging, a cancellation of the warning/watch is issued. The same occurs if a tsunami ceases to be potentially destructive.
In the case of the recent great Sumatra 9.0 earthquake, a tsunami information bulletin was issued within a quarter of an hour of the main shock, but the evaluation was that there was no risk of any damaging tsunami in the pacific region. Along most shores of the Pacific region the rise in sea level didn't exceed 0,5 meters, though locally in Manzanillo, Mexico the sea level fluctuation was 2.6 m Crest-To-Trough as an effect of the energy leaking into the Pacific Ocean from south of Australia and synergistic factors like rising sea current and local resonance.
For some seismic active parts of USA, shake maps are available via USGS. Calculations of impact is based on data from several seismographic stations and then displayed according to a predefined scale of possible damage. This is a very specific tool for evaluating possible rescue targeting efforts.
The Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tsunami has developed several useful modelling applications and data (e.g. inundation maps) and provides a useful web-link compilation of resources based on use of data (e.g. GIS).
The use of GIS may be extended to include further development in the field of Earthquake Management. For the Indian Ocean region, automatic tidal gauge buoys and special devices such as the DART system buoys (see fig. 3 of system workflow) able to detect tsunamis of amplitudes of 1 cm is obviously an urgently wanted (and presently missing) tsunami detection data input system. Also an increased density of seismographic stations would substantially increase the effectiveness in evaluating the magnitude and location of seismic events. With these devices in place and above all an effectively communicating network of dedicated watch stations, of which one may be assigned a watch centre, and finally well organised and locally supported predetermined strategies of action and plans of evacuation, at least a watch system as effective as the pacific one may be in place within a couple of years. The UN has actually declared that such a system will be globally implemented 2007, but the political step from pledge to fulfilment is a big leap compared to most technological development steps that can be boosted of this kind of disasters.
Leadership, management and education
The recent disaster has nevertheless revealed other weak links in an effective disaster management system, since the very nature of the area as a locally tourist based economy, the time of the event being a high season, the disaster has had global impact. It is one thing for local authorities to keep records of inhabitants of a region, but the lives and safety of tourists is the matter of other nations authorities and international bodies. Swedish authorities don't even have a strategy for earthquake hazard and at this very moment it is to be feared that between 1 000 and 2 000 Swedish citizens have been killed by the Sumatra tsunami (though the Swedish government have given out several confusing figures of the number of fatalities and missing persons).
The difference that education can make is essential. As an example, Many news websites (e.g. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2005/01/01/ugeog.xml&sSheet=/portal/2005/01/01/ixportaltop.html ) featured a story about a 10 year old girl who had studied earthquakes and tsunamis in school, recognised the unusual behaviour of the ocean and understood at an early stage that a tsunami may be on the way when the ocean drew back from the beach. Her early warning saved hundreds of lives. Another good example is the chief of the Italian National Rescue Agency. From his expertise in the area of earthquakes and disaster management he immediately understood the devastating effects the magnitude of the earthquake would have and that a tsunami possibly would have evolved. Within three hours he had issued a total stop of all flights to the area, within 24 hours he had rescue teams on site in Sri Lanka, Thailand and Indonesia and within 36 hours the first evacuated Italian citizens arrived in Italy. This can be compared to the Swedish authorities that didn't start acting urgently until 36 hours after the main shock, their first rescue teams arriving in Thailand after three days!
The issue of earthquake management involves not just the detection of events and conveying information to officials, media and the general public. As pointed out in the beginning of this paper any effective management system requires a powerful leadership. Leading officials with management responsibilities must be committed individuals with a sense of urgency in their decision-making and actions. If the political leaders don't have the expertise needed to act responsibly (and sensibly) in an alert or hazard situation, they need to surround themselves with competent officials with a mandate to act on own responsibility. They in turn need to be backed up with teams of competent and committed experts. Leadership and communication are the key factors that need to be addressed in any crises situation.
Some educational resources are available via the internet, and as an example the Wisconsin University Disaster Management Center http://dmc.engr.wisc.edu/about/index.html offers a completely distance based Disaster Management Diploma. Much of their course material is available even without registering in the course and they have also compiled a web-link list of other educational resources. In 1998 they held their first Workshop with special focus on GIS in Disaster Management.
The components of a disaster management GIS (or the other way around)
An Earthquake Management and Alert System (EMAS) needs clear definitions of when alerts should be issued, how they should be issued and depending on the situation an evaluation of the magnitude of the alert needs to be done. The alert triggering factors are well defined in the Pacific Tsunami Warning System, but describes only the phase between event occurrence until risk of devastating tsunami is blown over. In an EMAS, it is inherent to define also various phases of alert and management. The basic structure underlying this system is the three phases of Preparedness (P), Event (E) and Impact (I).
The Preparedness phase (P)
Earthquake prediction has been subject of vigorous debate for the last century. As expressed in an article on the USGS website: "Earthquake prediction is a popular pastime for psychics and pseudo-scientists, and extravagant claims of past success are common". So even if some "success-stories" of event prediction do exist, a true scientific method of predicting even major (7-8 M) or great (>8 M) earthquakes has not been confirmed. Research is nevertheless carried out presently in California, where attempts to trap earthquakes in the San Andreas fault have lead to useful information about the underlying mechanisms and involved physics in the theoretical aspect of earthquake prediction modelling. Also effective alert systems have evolved with the result that from the time of event until all parties concerned are in alert status is less than an hour, ready to evacuate or handle whatever situation that may arise (Earthquake Prediction, Societal Implications -Keitti Aki, Univ. Southern California, from Reviews of Geophysics).
Prediction of Earthquakes is fairly accurate in the aspect of spatial probability. Much is today known about the tectonics of earths crust and through historical data at least regional hazard maps can be presented that will answer the question where a major or great earthquake is most likely to happen. The problem is to accurately predict when an event will take place. Even predictions that states an increased probability over several years in areas with well known fault mechanisms have not been fulfilled.
The focus of the earthquake prediction "pseudo" science has been the calculation of tension, stress and periodicity in the actual fault. But it seems like no serious research has been carried out where the factor of earth tide is included in the increased probability prediction. It is a well known fact among some volcanists that active volcanoes are expected to have increased activity which possibly may result in eruption when extreme tidal forces are exerted on the earth. It has however been concluded among geoscientists that tidal gravity alone cannot account for the onset of an earthquake, and much of the science in this area is reaching outside of the accepted models of the earth.
Serious research has only been carried out in California and even though exact predictions as yet has not been the result, the primary goals remain unchanged: to issue a short-term prediction; to monitor and analyze geophysical and geochemical effects before, during, and after the anticipated earthquake; and to develop effective communications between scientists, emergency-management officials, and the public in responding to earthquake hazards.
Preparedness also includes evacuation plans, where geographic information of infrastructure, predefined shelter options and sanitation, rescue team resources and emergency care resources in case of a disaster should be continuously updated. The planned shelters and other emergency resources should be proportioned according to the possibly affected population and infrastructure access within each region and as far as possible, emergency shelters should never be placed within a possible (in the worst case event) inundation area. Within the PTWS it's up the the various member nations how they organise their evacuation and rescue and emergency response. It's my belief that any effective system should include plans for these resources in a way that they can be included in the GIS.
I believe that the human resource aspect of disaster management has been ignored when it comes to GIS. Since all people involved in disaster preparedness and management have a geographic location (though changing with time), a database with human resources should be developed and included in an effective system. By doing queries based on location, a list of persons (e.g. civil protection officers and local evacuation team officers and all other officials concerned) can be accessed for an area of emergency alert. If people within a globally (or nationally) operating disaster management team are equipped with PDAs, it allows for real-time feedback of field data from the persons connected to the disaster management network. Instant communication allows for quick and effective decision-making. Which leads us to
The Event Phase (E)
As described above most real-time event data is available via the world data center. Several GIS applications are presently active on the internet, the most comprehensive website (and portal) hosted by USGS. Earthquake data is readily available through SQL queries, displaying events based on user input attribute values, e.g. start and end date, magnitude, location etc. or through predefined queries (recent earthquakes with a magnitude of at least 4.0). Data can be viewed in a clickable map window and/or as a list, that can be exported to other formats.
Near real-time data together with special software can be downloaded from LISS. LISS also offers seismograph plots from connected stations, updated every 30 minutes for non-subscribers and a world map displaying earthquakes during the last 24 hours of magnitude > 5 including a table with basic data about each event.
Tsunami modelling is described above and is not an option for most GIS users today. However, NOAA offers an animation of the sumatra tsunami on their website. The animation was produced together with their Japanese counterparts and is also available as a gif-file covering a smaller area and including a time-scale, showing the amount of time that passed since main shock. Later on NOAA satellites were able to detect the tsunami from space. The satellite data was compared to the models provided at an earlier stage and will be a valuable tool for future tsunami detection, monitoring and modelling (see fig. 4 of tsunami propagation model and satellite data)
The Impact phase (I)
California is the good example of earthquake management and several GIS applications are developed, among which local shake maps available via USGS is one tool for assessing the impact (in terms of damage) that an earthquake may exert on the vicinity.
The UN site releifweb http://www.reliefweb.int/w/rwb.nsf is using GIS in the purpose of disaster management planning. For the Sumatra event they published a map that visualizes which areas are most seriously affected around the Indian Ocean. The map can be used by e.g. media or planning activities regarding rescue team efforts.
As mentioned above, satellite data is already widely used in damage assessment and the subsequent rescue operations can utilise this overlaid with population data, and as time goes by, data about number of fatalities, displaced, damaged infrastructures etc. can be added in vector format to the GIS. This is already being implemented today by several organisations (see above).
As I write this paper, leaders and experts around the world are planning to urgently implement a tsunami early warning system for the Indian Ocean. I want to raise a warning (also raised by UN Undersecretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and global relief coordinator Jan Egeland) about such a warning system here. As stated above, I believe that no system will be effective unless the proper leadership, management and level of knowledge is in place. Taking the Sumatra earthquake as an example, for a warning system to be effective in the mitigation of casualties, all shores of Thailand and Sri Lanka should have been evacuated within 1 2 hours after the main shock occurred, and all shores of East India evacuated within 3 hours. The mere calculation of the earthquake location and magnitude takes 15 minutes and detecting and confirming a destructive tsunami would possibly take another 5-10 minutes. The communication activities included, a warning may not have been effectively communicated until 30 minutes have elapsed. The Shores of Indonesia were already devastated after 30 minutes. In the other areas, very effective and locally supported communication is necessary in order to issue the warning to the general public, especially in poor areas.
In order to cut down the time it takes for issuing a warning, seismographic stations need to be more densely distributed in the region. By the time an event is localized and has a magnitude raising an alert, calculation of possible tsunami propagation will take too much time for effectively prioritizing which areas to issue the first warning. This time consuming activity can be mitigated by calculating tsunami propagation rasters for several possible earthquake locations in advance. The raster resolution could be rather course and the calculated rasters could be vectorised to isolines for every 15 minutes of tsunami propagation. These tsunami propagation isoline data sets can be stored in a database that will add the correct data set according to input of earthquake location.
If regional and local warning issuing officers are geographically linked to the areas covered by the various isoline areas, a list of communication priority can be instantly produced by a automated GIS function as soon as the location of an earthquake with certain characteristics setting off an alert is known to the system. The further issuing of a warning could also be automated through MMS, providing the regional and local officers with adequate information about the situation and how and when it may affect their area.
Any alert or warning must be closely monitored by professionals with the ability to evaluate the situation continuously. If an initial alert and possibly an issued warning is not followed by evidence of a tsunami, the warning may be cancelled at a later stage. The local warning issuing officers should know at what stage evacuation should be initiated or not, depending on the continuous communication with the chief issuing officer.
For early warning issuing to the general public, at least in densely populated areas, a siren and radio and television broadcast system similar to the Hawaiian tsunami warning system can be installed. This would make it possible for the general public to quickly take action on their own evacuation.
Above all, the whole process of implementing an effective system needs the support of political leadership and adequate financing on a continuous basis. I think it has become apparent to the global community that an effective disaster warning and management system is a global interest, every nation with resources should contribute. And to ensure an effective management of such a system, it should be autonomous and supranational in its structure, since obstacles more often than healthy is of a political and hierarchical nature. And when implementation is fulfilled, the system needs full support from political leaders in all countries in order to increase awareness, and give every human being an opportunity to educate herself and be prepared.
Figure 1. Map of the Sumatra Earthquake.
Figure 3. The DART mooring system. Courtesy of PMEL/NOAA.
